Will mortgage rates go up or down during a recession? Looking at data from all recessions in the past 40 years, it's pretty clear. In 100% of those recessions, mortgage rates first spiked and then went down by they end of the recession. Once we see inflation peak and start dropping, you can expect mortgage rates to do the same. At the same time, the feds will also typically lower rates to encourage spending again to help the economy get out of a recession which further increase the chances that rates will end up lower after everything is said and done.